Chapter 17  Probability

Statistics describe and interpret the world around us with numbers.

In Chapter 17, we will be learning

To predict which events are certain and which events are impossible.
To find possible outcomes, record them in tables or lists, and decide which are most likely or least likely.
To make a list to help solve a problem.
To record the results of an experiment.
To decide if a game is fair or unfair.

Vocabulary to learn;

event        certain        impossible        possible outcome        

most likely        least likely        fair

Literature Links;

Ready, Set, Hop!  by Stuart J. Murphy

Computer Lab Related Activities;

E-Lab #17
Mighty Math Number Heroes; Handsome Chance 

Internet Explorations with Probability;

Mrs. Glosser's Math Goodies certain/impossible
Mrs. Glossner's Math Goodies introduction to probability 
What are Your Chances

Lesson 1

An event is something that happens.
An event is certain if it will always happen.
An event is impossible if it will never happen.

  In the top bag it is certain that a green ball will be picked if one ball is pulled out of the bag because all of the balls are green.  It is impossible to pull a yellow ball out of the first bag because there are no yellow balls in the bag.

Lesson 2

A possible outcome is something that has a chance of happening.
An event is most likely to happen if it has a greater chance of happening than other events.
An event is least likely to happen if it has a lesser chance of happening than other events.

    If you spin the spinner one possible outcome is that you could land on blue or red section since there is a blue section and a red section on the spinner.  You would most likely land on the blue section since it is the largest section.  It is least likely that you would land in the red section since it is smaller.

Make a list...

Lesson 3

You can make a list to find all the possible outcomes of an experiment to test what can happen when you spin the spinner and pull a marble out of the bag.  

  1. Make a list of all the possibilities;
blue spinner/blue marble
blue spinner/red marble
red spinner/red marble
red spinner/blue marble

2.  Make a table for your experiment;

Experiment with Spinner and Marble

Spinner could be...

 Marble could be... Record the Outcome using tally marks /
Blue Blue  
Blue Red  
Red Red  
Red Blue  

Lesson 4

A game is fair if every player has an equal chance to win.

If two players were playing a board game and you could only move your piece a space if your color was pulled out of the bag, it would be a fair game if both players had the same chance that their color could be picked out of the bag.

If two players were playing a board game and you could only move your piece a space if your color was pulled out of the bag, it would be an unfair game if both players didn't have the  same chance that their color could be picked out of the bag.

Coin Flipping Internet Page

Assessment;

Know what these terms mean;

Event  ___            1.  Something that has a chance of happening

Certain                 2.  An event that will never happen

Possible Outcome           3.  Something that happens

Fair                                  4.  An event that will always happen

Impossible           5.  A game where everyone has an equal chance to win

    Be able to tell if something is certain, or impossible to happen.

                    Be able to tell is something would be most likely or least likely to happen.

                    Be able to list all the possible outcomes of an experiment.

                    Be able to tell when something is fair or unfair.